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Congressman Kevin Yoder

Representing the 3rd District of Kansas

American Health Care Act: CBO Score by the Numbers

May 30, 2017
Press Release

12 MILLION: When the CBO initially scored Obamacare, it forecasted that by this year, 22 million people would be enrolled in the individual market exchanges. As we know, in reality 10 million people have enrolled. That means the CBO was off by 12 million in its estimates on how many people would enroll.(1)

8 MILLION: When scoring the AHCA, CBO still forecasts that if Obamacare is left in place, individual market enrollment would jump from the 10 million enrolled today to 18 million by 2018.(2) As we know, insurance providers like Blue Cross Blue Shield KC continue to leave markets across the country. The CBO believes that enrollment will nearly double even as choice dwindles and costs go up. So when it says the AHCA would leave 8 million more people on the individual market uninsured,(3) it’s referring to 8 million people that it forecasts will have insurance by then – not people who are actually enrolled right now.

4 MILLION: CBO estimates that if the AHCA is passed into law, 4 million people who have Medicaid coverage right now will choose to opt out of their fully taxpayer-subsidized, free health insurance next year because the individual mandate is repealed.(4)

2 MILLION: CBO estimates that if AHCA is passed into law, 2 million people who have heavily- or fully-subsidized employer coverage right now will choose to drop off their plans next year because the individual mandate is repealed.(5)

UNKNOWN MILLION: CBO’s much publicized 23 million estimate of who will be without insurance coverage due to the AHCA includes “a few million who would use tax credits to purchase policies that would not cover major medical risks.”(6) To be clear, the CBO is saying an unknown number of people who will have insurance – “a few million” – are included in their estimate of who would not have insurance.

  1. CNN: What CBO got right – and wrong – on Obamacare
  2. CBO’s March 2016 Baseline: Table 1
  3. CBO’s AHCA Estimate: Table 4
  4. CBO’s AHCA Estimate: Table 4
  5. CBO’s AHCA Estimate: Table 4
  6. CBO’s AHCA Estimate: Page 4